Earthquake prediction fantasy or reality?

  A few minute warning prior to an Earthquake has the potential to save many lives and a substantial amount of infrastructure. Prediction of Earthquakes is elusive to Science, even though a special Department and an ample budget exist. To predict them has a been a goal since the first human existed that has ever experienced one, the subject of this article is just that Earthquake Prediction.

This is a photograph of a common Earthquake Warning,
the format is used for Tornado and Hurricane alerts as well.

  We received an earthquake warning earlier tonight, it came across the television screen at around 7:30 pm. The time of the occurrence was 7:18 pm, the warning was very timely, I have a minor concern about how it was presented. it was claimed to be a "warning", I am pretty sure they meant something else. One statement could be "an Earthquake has occurred" perhaps, prediction is not an accurate science yet. It was a 3.6 magnitude, the epicenter was just East of Oakland California, near Piedmont. I thought I felt it but I am not sure, the wind is blowing hard causing the house to shake and shudder. My wife and I live in one of those communities where the houses are built on pylons due to flooding possibilities, which could be caused by an earthquake. Earthquakes are common on the West Coast, in the past 24 hours California has experienced 18. During the past 7 days we had 216, the past 30 days 704 occurred, and the past year 8,029. The world has experienced 163 during the past 24 hours. All of the Earthquakes are reported from the lowest point detectable in magnitude which is a 3. The Richter Scale calculates the shakers size from the amplitude of the most powerful seismic wave measured on a seismograph. The Richter Scale was developed during the 1970's, taking the place of the Richter magnitude scale developed during the 1930's. Each step of the scale represents a 32 times increase of the lower number, for example, a 4 magnitude is 32 times more powerful than a 3 magnitude. (Follow this Link to the Earthquake Saftey web site.)
  All of the statistics that have been kept on the strength of Earthquakes are recorded after the event. The reason for that is obvious, Earthquakes cannot be predicted, the science is not there yet. The Science of seismology is concerned with all things earth-shaking, the Earthquake Prediction entity exists under that large umbrella. The Earthquake Prediction division is concerned with time, location, and magnitude of future Earthquakes, within set parameters for the next one to occur. That is a large bucket to fill.
  Earthquakes cannot be predicted, not one event has ever been successfully predicted. Science does not expect to know how to predict one in the future. I have heard many people make statements of how their pet acts differently, or the wild ones are engaging in strange activities. That may be so, just because I have never seen an example of such behavior it doesn't mean it doesn't happen. I was having coffee on the porch overlooking the slough on Saturday morning, I noticed something odd in the Atmosphere. It was slightly hazy, a cooler than the normal breeze, and a heavy feeling in the air. It was 7 am we had just rolled out of bed my wife and me, we got up expecting to see our little granddaughter for the next two days. I called her (my wife) outside and asked her if she thought it was a strange morning. Her reply "oh yeh, it is, we're probably going to have an Earthquake." Now we've had this conversation before, my position is she is unable to predict Earthquakes, that's when she comes up with her other theory. If she sees a dead cat on the side of the road, that is a sure sign of an earthquake. Unfortunately, she has never predicted one, however, I must admit this one came pretty close, but we've had 216 during the past week making it hard to miss at least one of them. A prediction is pretty much worthless with the remainder of the information missing. What, Where, and When the How will come later.

I'm not sure why the students have their hands over their heads
but this is a standard Earthquake Evacuation drill taking place at
a school. 

  Neither does the past predict activity in the future or if one occurred 50 miles distant it is no predictor of one happening near you. Even proclaiming we are "overdue" really rings hollow as does any of the other statements that seem as if they were written to evoke an emotional response, Lord knows our Government does enough of that.
  Most Government agencies warn us to "be prepared" for one, and we should, they commonly use the phrase "it's not a question of if one will occur, it's a matter of when." That is true, What, Where, and When will be addressed after the inevitable does occur. We are in a perpetual state of readiness, for the most part, our collective self-awareness is keen, however, it remains a mere 33% of us are actually prepared for one. Remaining 66% is divided equally between those who care but not enough to be prepared and those who are indifferent to the reality. I have written before that every Earthquake with the exception of one, I have experienced has been met with a reaction of surprise by the people in my vicinity at the time. Most commonly someone will say "was that an Earthquake?" It's a bit like the widely ignored Tsunami warnings, except anything Earthquake is paid attention to. ( Follow this Link to FEMA's make a plan template page.)
  I am in the camp of people with the belief that at some point science will be able to predict them accurately enough to save many lives. That is the goal to be able to predict the Where, When, and What with ample time for people to head out the door. As with Tsunamis, an inaccurate prediction has the ability to set the research back. Public buy-in is there, we are all ready for accurate prediction to occur. Science realizes the responsibility they have, if a warning is not accurate, it will do the science no good. From my perspective I am not overly worried about earthquakes occurring around us, I will take them in stride, I have our kit and plan by the door. As usual, I am concerned about the human aspect, this being in places around the country that have unknown faults. Either unknown faults or forgotten faults such as the New Madrid Fault in Missouri are my biggest concern. On the West Coast, we have been conditioned to Earthquakes, I'm not saying we have any special anything to deal with them, we expect one to happen is what I mean. My concern is if people in seismically idle places don't know how one feels will they know what actions to take if it does strike? I remember one I was in, I was at work in a huge shop when it occurred. The shaking was very pronounced, lights shaking, breakers shutting the equipment down, and the power went out. Immediately everyone ran out of the building, we knew it was a large one, looking back it may have been basic survival reactions. If that was the case we don't have to worry about our fellow countrymen and women knowing what to do, they will run out of the building.
  We received an Earthquake warning, after the fact, I see the humor in it, I'm sure the news station did as well. Earthquakes can't be predicted, Science won't try without a proven method, and we will continue to be divided 33%-33%-33% until a trustworthy system is developed.

This is a photograph of a typical commercially prepared Earthquake Kit.

  Thanks for reading and sharing, if the ground starts shaking when you are outdoors, you'll be fine. If it starts shaking while you are indoors, you will have a few seconds before it stops to determine your course of action.
  Leave a comment with your experience or stories about earthquakes, I'd like to hear them, thanks.
jacquesandkate  EmergencyKitsPlus.com