Sunday, May 13, 2018

Disaster alerts are heeded one is not, it's a huge problem

Pele is erupting on the Island of Hawaii, people are in distress with many being left homeless, emergency services are essential. A threat of the Volcano having an immense explosion is expected as well within the next week or so. The lifesaver was the heeding of warnings the event was likely to occur, which it did and continues to for the foreseeable future. There is, however, one natural event that hardly anyone pays any attention to when warnings are issued, it leaves me bewildered.  

 
  This has been a big news week, as is usual as far as I'm concerned the biggest attention-getting is the issues that cause the most suffering for humanity. Natural disasters are not only the most spectacular visions of unbelievable destruction, once in a while we experience one that appears to have no end in sight. Such is the case of Pele erupting on the Big Island of Hawaii, that lava cannot be stopped, slowed, or the direction or duration estimated. I don't understand a lot about the makeup of a volcano, all I know is what I have read about or what is covered on the news stations. The human suffering is staggering, homes lives, and entire environments will be changed for hundreds of years. Being several thousands of miles distant my compassion for them runs deep in my soul, but that and two bucks will by a cup of coffee at Starbucks, I personally feel helpless.

  A huge lifesaver in that event is the people heeded the warning that the volcano was acting up and going to erupt. From the appearance of it, all the people heeded the warning and immediately began to do whatever they could to manage the situation from their point of view. Some people did try to build berms to deflect the red-hot flowing lava, others waited to see if their places of residence would be consumed by the beast, and others immediately left. The main thing is the majority of people paid attention to the alerts and followed evacuation procedures. This event is one of those that I will once again embrace the words that I am very cautious to use, "Catastrophe", "Disaster", "Evacuation Emergency", and "Preparation for a disaster". Most of them are overused words, there are others but these are the main ones I steer clear of, some events earn all of these descriptions, this volcanic eruption is one of them. The people paid attention to the warnings, which convinced me many lives were saved, that is the important thing, structures facing lava are doomed. (Link to a New York Times report on the Volcano)
  As a child, I lived in Tornado country, at its northernmost point, Minnesota, during spring and fall tornado warnings were normal. There are many parts of the country that suffered more and bigger Tornadoes, I can only relate to the ones I was involved in. When a Tornado warning was sounded we would tune into our televisions, or just as likely in those days our radios. We would be told which Counties and Cities were in the most danger, if our area was mentioned we went outside. Looking into the sky for that tail dipping out of the clouds toward the ground, the rain would start, it would pour rain, the wind would blow, then stop to an eerie calm the sky would take on a green tint. We waited for the sirens, or as we were all gazing into the clouds for a tail that would touch the ground. We would head for the basement when the threat was becoming more obvious, and wait the storm out. There are safe places where people could evacuate to, especially if a person lived in a Trailer Park, as we called them, or if the schools were in session they also had safe spaces. We heeded the warnings and took them very seriously, I don't recall anyone referring to themselves as a "Storm Chaser", we most likely would have thought they had a loose screw. The reality is the people paid attention to the warning and advice of emergency personnel, as well as broadcast news media.
  I haven't experienced the full frontal force of a Hurricane, I have been in three, on the outskirts of two. Those two were while I was in the U.S. Navy while our ship was in Subic Bay, Philippines. An alert was sent through town for those of us on Liberty to get the heck back to the ship, of which we did. I must qualify this, missing movement of a ship a sailor is attached to is a major offense, we had to report back immediately. Some sailors did not make it back, most of us did, we obeyed the order, reported on board, and the ship made way. It is not always safest to head into a Hurricane, our intent was to outrun the monster, most Hurricanes (Typhoon in Asia) are a slow-moving lumbering beast. Our ship was not much faster, the Captain made the call to outrun it or go into it, we never headed into one while I was on board. We heeded the call to return to the ship, we took it very seriously, of course, we obeyed orders but more than that is was our surest avenue of surviving the storm. The people of Florida are the same, they are actually to be respected for their response to Hurricanes, it seems they have a lot of them. Very few flat out ignore the warnings, they have it dialed in. They, for the most part, do not evacuate unless the storm is above a Catagory 3, one reason is the building codes for new homes require them to withstand a Cat 3 Hurricane. The other reason is experience, it can't be argued with, but still, they pay attention to the warnings, they do not shrug them off.

  Blizzard warnings are taken seriously by the people of the North, grocery stores are packed with people laying in supplies. They like the people in Florida have it dialed in for blizzards, it also comes from experience, enough of them occur that if a warning is ignored it may possibly be a matter of life and death. A lot of people I'd like to say most have a trunk containing blankets, jackets, shovels, and many items to help them in case they are on the road and become stranded. When a blizzard warning is televised it is taken seriously, most people will stay off the roads, however, some do get caught and stranded. None the less, attention is paid to the warnings and everyone knows of the potential danger of the storm.
  Wildfire alerts are also listened to very carefully, wind speed, direction, the speed of the fire, and which areas are in peril are all closely monitored by people in the vicinity. If the responders knock on the door and tell us to leave immediately, very few people ignore the call, they get the heck out of Dodge. There is no way to predict the direction, duration, or the speed of the firestorm on an individual basis, without exception the firefighting entities have it down to a science. People upon the initial alert begin to secure their property, take care of livestock, and plan for evacuation, many have responsibilities beyond merely grabbing and going, some choose to remain to protect their animals. In the case of Wildfires, everyone takes the warning extremely serious, and pay close attention to reports of what progress and destruction are taking place.
  Dam burst as the one upstream of where I live (about 100 miles away), the situation at the Oroville Dam during the winter of 2017. The spillway was compromised by an enormous amount of rainfall causing the level of the reservoir to rise above the top of the highest dam in the United States. Coursing down the spillway which was compromised the water tore it apart, gouging out the underlying layers of soil until it was solid bedrock. The call to evacuate the Cities in the path of the dam burst were issued and the people paid attention to the warning. I as you may recall seeing on the news an endless stream of cars heading down the mountains toward the safety of the faraway valleys. It was said the water behind the dam would submerge the City of Oroville beneath ten feet of water, the people did not have to be told twice, they headed out for higher ground. There again the warnings were not ignored, people took them seriously.
 
  Even the storms we have in California are taken seriously, most people from other places realize a storm here is not the same as a storm in Texas or Oklahoma. Still, the warning is taken seriously, like with blizzards the grocery stores will fill up with people getting ready to be possibly stuck at home for a while. Here the intensity of a storm is usually not as great as the longevity of it, we have some heavy rainfall, however, the biggest threat is when a steady rain is experienced for an extended time. A full month of rain is not unheard of, the amount of rain is minimal per day, however unending rain is the culprit. Massive flooding, mudslides, and bridge collapses are commonplace during such an event. Due to creeks, rivers, and water bypasses being used that may not have seen action for as long as 10 years or more. The Anderson Dam in San Jose and the mud flats landslide in Big Sur are two very good examples. Still, people take the warnings very seriously. (Link to an up to date report on the Mud Creek Slide at Big Sur)
  In contrast and something, I have never understood is Tsunami's, People on the West Coast ignore Tsunami warnings. I lived and worked in the California Desert for just over 3 years, it was blazing hot during the summers, 120 degrees was fairly commonplace. I was on a crew that worked outside, we have strict company rules to limit our exposure, so that was a minimal problem. For relief from the heat, we would on a couple of weekends each month head to the beaches of Southern California and 70-degree weather. Normally there would be 5-6 families, for them, it was a surfing trip, for some of us it was a let's pretend we're going surfing trip, (that would be me). During one such trip, the lifeguards drove down the beach, ("Cardiff by the Sea"), sounding the alarm of an impending tsunami which was offhandedly rejected by everyone on the beach, everyone. The beach at Cardiff is at the base of a cliff about 75 feet high if someone knows the exact height please leave it in the comments.
This is the Stairway from the beach to the Camp Grounds at
Cardiff by the Sea, north of San Diego
In the event a Tsunami was to take place escape would be impossible left to the last minute, it was a steep climb out on the state built stairways. The Tsunami did not occur, the consensus was that it never would because they never do, it's an automatic response. The Tsunami warning is issued and immediately scoffed at by the people on the beach, I don't know about the locals. So what is going on with that? Complacency to the point of not caring about issues of life and death? (I was one of those that did not leave the beach, I ignored the warning). All along the West Coast, it's the same story, Tsunami warning, and immediate dismissal, surely someone must take them seriously.
  There exist on the Big Island of Hawaii on a cliff overlooking the ocean, the cliff is huge stretching many miles along the beach and far inland. That cliff is threating to dislodge itself and plunge into the ocean. I watched a National Geographic documentary where the scientist stated if that cliff separates from the Island, it will cause a giant Tsunami, heading directly towards Los Angeles. That Tsunami could be as high as 100 feet slamming directly into that densely populated City and all of it's sub-burbs placing millions of lives at risk. When will it fall? That is unknown, but the intensity is not, I fear the Mayor of L.A. has his work cut out for himself if evacuation is ordered. I question how many people will ignore it, the event may take place and it may not, so far it has defied prediction. Millions upon Millions of people heading North on I-5 and 101 may be as bad as the Tsunami, the thought is staggering.
  In the South Pacific lies Easter Island, it also has a huge cliff threatening to dislodge causing a huge Tsunami which will head straight for the West Coast of South America. In the chance that event occurs, how likely is it the Tsunami warning will be taken seriously there as well? I don't know the answer to that either, again the wave could be as high as 100 feet, placing millions of people on the West Coast of South America in danger as well.
  I recall a quote Danial Boone is credited with when asked if he had ever found himself to be lost in the wilderness, his answer "Not lost, but I have been bewildered on occasion", that describes my thoughts on Tsunami alerts. The potential of destruction and loss of life is incredibly high, and we, myself included, ignore the warnings. Even warnings of "The Big One" in California are taken seriously, but not Tsunamis, what is the deal with that? Some Tsunamis have been experienced in recent times, they were predicted. Causing damage mostly to Marinas in coves and bays with an inlet to the ocean, Santa Cruz experienced one such event a few years ago, destroying docks, infrastructure, and some damage to boats.
  What could be the reasons for our complacency? Offhand it is easy to suspect it may be a case of the "Little Boy who cried Wolf", predicting them when nothing took place, in other words, blame the people trying to save our lives. Perhaps it's due to us not experiencing a large Tsunami in recent times, or paying no attention to the geological history of the entire West Coast from Alaska to the tip of South America. I wonder if it may be due to the fact most people do not live on the Coast, a Tsunami would not affect the vast majority of United States citizens, causing interest level to be low as well as an attitude of "it won't affect me so I don't worry about it". As a comparison, we on the West Coast don't weigh Tornadoes or Hurricanes as highly as those areas susceptible to them, but the number of affected people has been higher because those events actually took place, so much so they are commonplace. (Follow this Link to the Tsunami Center of the U.S.)
  I am not a Geologist, I know almost nothing about rocks other than they are hard, in Hawaii, they are under the threat of boulders weighing one ton being shot into the air 25 miles, a warning will be issued to watch for falling debris, and ash. That warning is taken seriously as well, who wants to be crowned with a rock weighing in at 1 ton falling at 250 miles per hour from 25 miles high? It could be hundreds if not thousands of chunks blown out or the crater into the sky, how high could a 10-pound rock be shot, 50 miles high? I cannot figure out a way to avoid being struck if the material is shot out of the red-hot caldron, even if a person saw it coming by the time the words "I wonder what that is", can be uttered it's too late to get out of the way.
25 miles high. 
  What in the world is happening with Tsunami warnings, I can't figure it out, its as if we make a conscious effort to ignore them, is it insanity? You tell me what your thoughts are in the comments because clearly I'm bewildered.
  Thank you for reading and sharing, this is a serious subject one of which deserves a bit of thought by all of us to evaluate our own ideas of what a Tsunami warning conjures up in the mind of a collective body of people. Normally at least one person will take advantage of the advice, or warnings of a person in one of our protective services, but not when it comes to Tsunamis, how strange is that? Thanks again for reading, tell me what you think.
jacquesandkate  EmergencyKitsPlus.com
 

1 comment:

  1. Your guess is as good as mine. There have been countless situations of Tsunami warnings and them being ignored. The fatalities have been tremendous. I must say, and I am a hopeful pessimist of modern humanity, that I don't think we begin to comprehend or prepare for these matters until people of importance become casualties in them.

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