You've heard of "Murphy's" law, how about the "Pareto Principle", the 80/20 rule, the final bailing wire solution?

  The false spring we are experiencing in Northern California has encouraged me to resume my coffee intake on the porch overlooking the river. It's a slough actually, I'm not sure what the difference between a slough and  Bijou is, I have a tendency to believe it's whatever they are referred to as in the location person is. People are surprised to learn that Creedence Clearwater Revival" wrote some, I'm not sure how many, songs not on the Louisiana Bijous', but on the California Delta, some do refer to our sloughs as "Bijous". OK, enough of that, I drink coffee out here and then spend my day maintaining the website, writing blogs, and articles. I observe the wildlife a lot as well, most mornings there are no humans on the river, I saw three boats go by this morning, two are crawdad fishermen, they get an order and fill it, almost every day. The third was a recreational fisherman. Yesterday I saw one boat early in the morning, it was a Sheriffs boat, for some reason they have been patrolling our little section of the Delta.

Turkey Vultures are powerful flyers, however, they appear clumsy,
do they ever slack off? I don't think they can afford to. 

  I watch the wildlife, and this morning while watching the Turkey Vultures, they are wondrous animals, I watch them all the time. While watching them this morning chug up through the heavy cool morning air I wondered if they ever are not at "100%", I wonder if they ever "slack off", I don't think so unless they are hurt or ill. They are big birds, not so graceful flyers, they look to me like highwire artist balancing on a cable high above the ground while balancing with a long pole. When they take to the air their powerful wings pound the air, I was thinking it's a lot like an Olympic swimmer. If you've ever watched an Olympic athlete, in this case, a swimmer or maybe a cross-country skier, they go "all out" with each pump of their arms and legs. Vultures are the same, alighting from the ground, they chug and pound with their broad powerful wings until they reach their desired height above the island across the river. It takes them about 20 flaps of their wings until they reach a height and speed they find is appropriate, then they level off and glide. With a tailwind, they will sometimes come zooming in low and fast, looking like a large bomber in the old war movies. I wonder if they ever just don't feel like giving it their "all", like us humans do from time to time, at least I know I slack off on occasion.
  It started me thinking about how some humans refer to slacking off or incomplete task, as the 80/20 rule, it's a rule I use all of the time. (The "Pareto Principle") For those who have never heard the term or heard it and just didn't know what was meant by it, I will explain what I see it as, and how it relates to learning life's skills and being self-aware.
  When a person is assigned a task to complete, or a job at home, perhaps on the "honey do" list. The task may start with planning, gathering the materials needed, then completion of the task. He/She (maybe I will coin a new word, "hesh") depending on their skill level, can intentionally or for lack of knowledge, complete 20% of the task, sometimes from the outside looking in it can appear to be 100% complete. I've run into that on several occasions, one could have resulted in a catastrophic failure of a large machine. I was assigned a job to repair a large fan that sat about 75 feet above the ground at the top of an electric generating plant, it was vibrating, shaking, and shutting itself down because of it. When I arrived at the facility the plant manager told me he did not understand why they were having problems with it so soon after it was repaired by another Millwright on our crew. I climbed up to take a look, when I arrived up there I saw that one of the large ball bearings was completely torn apart by the vibrations. Looking closer I discovered the problem was the repair that was made a few weeks earlier, was a 20% repair intentionally made to appear to be 100% complete. The 5" diameter shaft had been ground away by the previous bearing, there was a deep groove cut in the solid steel about 1 inch deep, a real danger in that it weakened the shaft to the point of breaking. The Millwright that repaired it earlier merely put a new bearing in the old ones' place, and used "shims" to tighten it on the shaft, it's destiny was short-lived, it caused a much more intensive repair. I ended up making an 80% repair, the shaft needed to be replaced, it was not in the cards. I moved the bearing, to a clean spot on the shaft after a lot of work, and set up a barrier warning people not to approach it while it was running or the 18 inches compromised by the groove may separate and who knows what would happen. I didn't like the repair, but sometimes due to reasons' that are out of our control, that's just the way things are. The repair lasted for years, the plants are now all gone, torn down and scrapped out, no one suffered, the 80% repair worked, but that doesn't make it the same as a completed fix. People were in danger the remainder of the plants' life. (Wikipedia explains the 80/20 rule "Pareto Principle" at this Link)
  That is a good example of 20% appearing like 100% but falling way short. There are times when 20% is fine, Using a piece of bailing wire to hold something until it makes it home, is a good example. 20% in the front end of a task is the process of determining if it is worth doing, I do that all the time, it does not demonstrate a failure, it is the opposite, it demonstrates a success.

Typical "get me home" bailing wire fix.

It's called planning, as an example, I have been thinking lately about an efficient way to start a fire in the rain or under wet conditions. I watch a lot of Youtube videos, I'm trying to learn how to make interesting and useful ones, there are a lot of "how to light a fire" videos on that site. I have been trying to find a common household cleaning solution or something that is flammable and able to soak into something like a manilla rope. I went through this whole mental exercise when I realized just this morning that there is no way I could market something like that. For one thing, it is very involved to ship highly flammable materials which this would be, I spent a small amount of time each day for the past 3 weeks thinking about it, a well spent 20% of the task. It did, however, send me on a path to search if there is a way to demonstrate How to Make such an item at home for the backpacker, or camper, for example, it would make a really good video if I could think of a unique new way to light a campfire in the rain.
  I use the 80/20 to estimate as well, as an example blogging, readership is dependent upon how many people zip by my title while zooming around the internet. 80% of the people who have the opportunity to see this blog will go right past it, for many reasons, they may just flat out not be interested, they may not read very much, or it just was not noticed, that's the 80%. 20% will notice it, look at the photo headlining it, some read the introduction and then move along. When we think of that 20% of semi-interested people as a new 100%, then it's the same thing, 80% notice it, read the heading, look at the photo, wonder about it and then move on which leaves 20% of that remaining number. As it ends up it is my estimate that 20% of the final 20% actually open up the blog, how many actually make it through the entire write up? There is no way of knowing, however as it ends up it's a numbers game.
  I use it for news items as well, especially political stuff, 80% of every proposal never sees the light of day, and out of the remaining 20%, well see above, it works out the same way. During the process of a large machinery purchase, like a mobile crane for example, during the discussions that took place prior to a decision, the 80/20 was used as well. If an expensive machine will accomplish 80% of what you want it to, it's enough of a percentage to justify the purchase. I'm sure there are many ways to make a final purchase decision, but that's how I did it, and it did work during the remaining discussions, it gave me a point to start my views at.

Hmm, let me see, is that 80% complete or does it just look like it?

  Using it in the niche I have chosen for a website, it works with it as well. I am an advocate of having a weeks supply of water, food and other supplies on hand in the case of a natural disaster. FEMA and other Government entities recommend a 72 hour supply. The 72 hour supply to me is 80% of what is actually needed, it will get you through the first 3 days of a disaster for sure, easily. However one week designates to be the final 20%, I can add 20% more supplies to the 80% and be 100% supplied for one week, it makes sense to me, especially in light of the fact it will be mostly water and a few more instant meals for a nominal cost.
  At times 20% does work, at times 80% doesn't, we just have to be able to plan, and project which is which, if I accomplish this much of this task is it 80% or 20%? That is a challenge as well, to me, it's another tool to measure my self-awareness, as well as how effective my efforts are. If we complete 100% of everything, it would be wonderful, but sometimes it is not possible, sayings like "best shop practices" and "do the best you can" are put to good use in those instances.
  Thank you for reading this blog, leave a comment below, let me know what you think, and hey share my blog, you may know someone that thinks this is the best thing since sliced bread, which at one time was against the law in the U.S., but that's another blog.

jacquesandkate  emergencykitsplus.com