14 Earthquakes this morning in Dublin, what does the average magnitude mean, average rainfall? I'm confused

  There were a bunch of earthquakes in Danville California today, (20 miles from here)14 of them at least in that city alone. There were 27 in all of Northern California, is it a sign that a bigger one is on the way? There is no way to predict that, but human nature makes us believe that may well be the case. We have a tendency to attempt to make sense of things that we don't really have a full understanding of what is happening.

Parkfield California is one of the most measured points of the
San Andrea Fault, those white tubes are all measuring instruments
There are a lot more, they record the slightest vibrations.

I know there are more measuring instruments, they are able to record the earth shaking to levels so low we cannot feel them under our feet. I no longer feel most of the earthquakes anyway, the bad part is the more we get used to them the higher our comfort level is. Science does a good job at predicting them in the general sense, such as our chances of an 8.0 or higher magnitude quake in the next 10 years has a certain percentage chance of happening. The one statistic I have a problem with is "Averages" when a news article makes a statement such as "the average earthquake in this area measures 5.5 on the Richter scale." OK, that's good and all of that but what in the heck does that mean? To me, it means we had two 9's and two 2's for instance. Which means nothing to me, it's just an "average", There is a more puzzling average that dictates a lot of procedures and policy in the Western United States, Rainfall normals, and averages.
  We are in a drought, how do we know? The "average" rainfall is way below normal, to me, it makes no sense at all, the normal to me is low rainfall. Every summer since I've lived in California it has been declared a "drought", due to the rainfall being below normal. I question if we know what "normal" is. It's normal to me to have 5 years of low rainfall, then one winter a major deluge. The weatherman on the morning news declared this morning we are way below normal because the average is so many inches.

We use average and normal together, it drives me crazy, to me, it makes little sense. It's like saying the average male human height is 5 foot 2-36/64 inches, no one is that height, but that at least it is not used as a 5 foot 2-36/64 inch male as being normal because it isn't normal, it's the average. That statistic is at least usable, it gives us an idea what we can expect when we are going to meet a male human somewhere. We don't really expect a 7'6" guy to show up, but because it's an average it could happen. We also don't make policy on that type of average, unless if it's a building code for the size of doors or something maybe, normally exceptions to the rule don't dictate policy. But rain, average rain is in no way the normal, our average maybe 16 inches a year, but our normal is more like 5 or 6. There is a reason the average is used as normal, and it's political, it's for the farmers and crop insurance. The average also allows the water boards to increase the allotments of water that is shipped south to the central valley farms. That is why the demand for water from the north is always stressed to the max, There is more water promised to the farmers and water districts than what falls in most years, during years of "drought" they demand more water because of their allotment, if they don't get it and the harvest is reduced they collect insurance from the Federal Government. In many ways, the Government is being farmed instead of the land. The "average" is not "normal", it's average annual rainfall, the normal is much less rain than what we get every 5 years or so. From the 100th parallel west, it's the same story, a line from the center of North Dakota in the North, to Texas in the South. East Texas wet, swampy, and green, West Texas dry, barren, and brown. Instead of rainfall being measured and averaged in specific regions perhaps it should be measured as an average in all of the West. The rain falling in the West is divided by the Rocky Mountains, the Continental divide sends water East via Missouri and other rivers, and to the West via Colorado and likewise other rivers. Lower rainfall from the Rocky Mountains to the 100th parallel causes drought, likewise the other direction as well, the Colorado River supplies west of the Rocky's states with their water. I believe the reason the averages are split is due to the many mountain ranges out here, the Rockies, Sierra Nevada's, and the Coastal range to name a few.

West Texas, very dry.

 

Eastern Texas, a big contrast.

I am not even sure if there is a "normal" amount of rain, maybe it's our natural need to control everything in our environment, or more likely it is our desire to understand the things that affect our lives. Without statistics, there is no way we could come up with a normal, at least average is mathematical and we can make sense of it. Normal is an observation type of assessment, with the very little scientific reasoning behind it. A good example of that is "normally the wind blows from the first week in March until the end of August, it's strictly an observation, backed up with years of records, but it's still a normal there is no way to average it out.
  I don't know what average and normal mean when used in conjunction to predict next month's rainfall. I do however know what they mean when they stand apart, one mathematically backed up, the other more of an observation and "dead reckoning".
  I hope I got my thoughts on it across successfully to you, I know it's a dry subject, (pun intended) I'm very interested in it. I chose this subject for a couple of reasons, one is it really does confuse and drive me crazy and the other is we are approaching wildfire season. I began wanting to write on wildfires and the start of the season as soon as the rain stops and the state turns to gold. Then I started to read about the drought and this blog took on a life of its own. It's interesting, although more tragic than interesting, how the West is dry today, and the Midwest is flooding man what a contrast in reality.
  I will end here, I fear I lost everyone after the first paragraph if it drives you nuts like it does me leave a comment. (I just asked my wife if it drives her crazy, her reply was "no one thinks of that stuff but you, I have never given it one second of thought.") I start talking about water when my friend Mike is here, he rolls his eyes and sits starry-eyed until I stop. There is a lot to our water situation, I have suggested in other blogs that if you have an interest in water as I do, read the book "Cadillac Desert", I have numerous times, in fact, I'm looking for it now to read once again. Because that's what I do.
  Thank you for reading, sharing and suffering through my blog, let me know what you think, I appreciate your comments.
jacquesandkate  emergencykitsplus.com