Why are wildfires so common in the Western States during the fall? Here is the answer

More Wildfires start during October than any other month.

That smoke flows south when in the north, and north when in
the south.

Dark clouds are filling the sky in Northern and Southern California, wildfires are burning out of control. There are many occurring now throughout the state, my count is at 9 right now, but there appears to be more. Of these fires some are nearly contained, others raging out of control, people literally running for their lives. Abandoning homes, cars, and anything too heavy to carry they are escaping with only their lives and what they are wearing. The Campfire which destroyed the city of Paradise is traveling as fast as 80 football field lengths per minute, 8,000 feet per minute.  By my calculations that is 1-1/2 miles per minute, or 90 mph (2.40 kpm), at that speed if it were at the dead end of the road I live on, 1 mile away, we would have less than a minute to evacuate. This is just the beginning of the disaster however if the wind as it is predicted to do dies down overnight the firefighters may have a chance to make headway. This is the most challenging time of the year for the wildfires to start, in fact, the month of October is the month that this state experiences most of the years' events. Contrary to what most of us want to believe fall is not a safer time, especially without rain. (The wind did not let up, the Campfire continues to rage violently)

Two wind conditions affect the west coast during the Autumn, the Santa Ana winds in Southern California and the Diablo winds in Northern California. Brought on by atmospheric conditions, in the north, it is a lingering high-pressure area just outside the Golden Gate. In Southern California, the wind is caused much in the same way channeling it south along the western slope of the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The gusts have been recorded at 30-50 miles per hour (65-80 kilometers per hour), whipping through the deep canyons and up steep mountain slopes the breezes commonly top that speed. A reason for the unpredictability of the blazes is the varying winds which are capable of causing the flames to change directions, speed, and intensity in the blink of an eye. As I am writing this the wind speed on top of Mount Diablo (It is outside of my big window, about 15 miles distant) is 72 miles per hour (116 kph), it is prime for a fire. I will be watching that range of mountains for any sign of trouble, I have spotted them from my house before. (Mount Diablo is shrouded with smoke it is no longer visible.)

Mount Diablo last spring.

I looked out the window one afternoon last year and saw a puff of smoke on the side of the Mountain, my initial thought was someone has started a big piece of machinery. It was a wildfire the cause was obscure, which most likely means it was natural causes. Within 10 minutes 1/4 of the slope was engulfed, it did not become a major fire due to the rapid response of the firefighters. Winds are just one of the contributing factors another is rain.

(This Link leads to an explanation of a safe zone around the home.)

Rain is a cause, it's hard to believe but both ways rain is harmful, too much too early, too little too late. We have had no ran in Northern California since May 2018, Southern California has had some, about 1/8th inch, the ground cover is tinder dry. It doesn't take many words to explain why dry undergrowth is another culprit in causing wildfires, that is the result of heavy rains. The state had 5 years of low rain totals prior to the winter of 2017-2018, then the clouds opened up, enough for the Governor to declare the drought was over. He might have spoken too soon, it may have merely been a relief. I often think the word drought should not be used when it is applied to the weather in the Western States. Reversing the roles of drought and good water years we would be better off referring to the dry years as "normal" and the wet years as anomalies, which they are. Droughts are normal weather here, there is no way to get around it, I decided that when I first moved here. Without fail when the wet season ends within a month or two another drought is declared when actually it should be referred to as Normal. But in any event, we had rain 6 months ago encouraging the grass to grow, and grow it did. The ground was rejoicing in having moisture, the speed of the growth was spectacular, the inspectors were out hanging notices to alert property owners to clean up their lots. In the backcountry, where Paradise is, the undergrowth grew unabated. Unchecked except in those places that the property owners constructed safe zones around their homes, even at that I wonder how effective the zones are at keeping the flames at bay when the wind speed is that high.

A photo of a fire zone.

A friend that lived through the wildfires that took place by Shasta last year told me the safe zones are highly valuable in keeping the flames away, his grandson and daughter both lost their homes to the fires. He told me that the properties surrounded by a fire cleared area, for the most part, survived the fire. It was moving so fast the flames followed the fuel around the house, embers did fly all over the places, but they set up a second line of defense. Sprinklers on rooftops extinguished the embers, the people soaked their roofs. His son did as well, but it was not a successful effort, although it was very much worth doing.

In the blog I posted Nov. 8, I stated that the at-risk areas for wildfire are close to our house, in fact, the border is about 400 feet away. It's just on the other side of the slough, it ends at the Levee, our island is a safe zone surrounded by at-risk areas. I'm not sure of the reason for that, the center of the island is uninhabited with overgrown brush, blackberry's and swamp willows which are all highly flammable. The reasoning may lie in what this island is made up of, peat moss, it burns really well. We had a wildfire 7 years ago, it went underground and became a peat fire. Two of my neighbors extinguished it after a 3-month battle and a lot of heavy equipment. The fire area first must be flooded, then trenches dug to allow the water to flow into the peat. The operation needs to follow the hot section closely constantly digging away at the subsurface. Those types of fires burn under roads, parking lots, and even homes. Luckily this one was in a desolate area with few outbuildings, and no homes, there was a storage yard but most of the property being stored was moved.

The wind tonight will reach velocities above 30 mph, and gust possibly as high as 80 mph. The forecast is that the low-pressure area over Nevada will move to allow the high pressure to move in reducing the winds. When the high-pressure area moves and covers Northern California the winds reduce to near zero, in this case, the prediction is 2-3 mph. Still, the fires are monsters to be brought under control, placing too many people at risk. As always the human suffering is unbelievable, every one of the residents of Paradise has lost everything. The first responders are dedicated to saving people, but it doesn't stop there they rescue animals as well.  The firefighters are risking their lives, it seems one is lost putting out each of these catastrophes. People manning the relief stations, and those making sure the fire crews eat and have a place to rest are indispensable as well. These events are like an octopus, the tentacles are far-reaching and involve literally thousands of people dedicated to helping humanity. The victims have nowhere to return home to, they have lost everything, heirlooms, homes, and in some cases pets.

Thank you for reading and sharing my blog, is there an answer to wildfires? Is there a proactive way to deal with them? I certainly don't know the answer, is it easier for fire starts to be controlled than for hurricanes or tornadoes for example? I think not, but is acceptance of them being a new normal an adequate response? All I have is questions, no answers for any of these. Thanks again for reading and sharing.

JacquesLebec  emergencykitsplus.com