Tuesday, September 19, 2017

What steers the Hurricanes, Why the East Coast and not the West Coast? The answer is here.

  As I was watching the onslaught of the Southwestern, and Midwestern U.S. of Irma and Harvey they displayed a very irrational course of travel. I have (as most other people most likely) have wondered what in the world can steer a phenomenon as big and powerful as a hurricane. I look at where the islands are and sometimes it appears the storms follow either the inside path with islands on each side or the outside path and up the east coast. The inside path looks almost to "bounce" off the edges and center of each island. The outside to the north appears to be guided on its left side, (North is to the right), then travels up the east coast. Another thought I seem to have at least once a month is why don't we on the west coast ever suffer hurricanes. They do start down around South America and travel North, mostly they fizzle out by the time they get to about 100 miles south of San Diego. One of the goals of the Haarp project was to "steer" tornado's and hurricanes, it did not work.
 
It's a small map for a lot of  violent storms. 
Hurricane Forecast consists of not only it's predicted path but storm surge, wind speed, temperature and future pressure. The forecast cost in the millions of dollars to produce, employing people on the ground in the vicinity of the storm, sending storm equipped aircraft over the storm, many instruments and television crews. The money is well spent, the forecast saves many lives during the season. The forecast will pinpoint where the Hurricane is most likely to track, making evacuation's much easier and logical. Accurate predictions strengthen the trust the people have in the professional weather forecasting personnel and the company's providing such services. Corporations that deal with dangerous chemicals and toxins are able to prepare their company's for the storm by relocating the stock or other precautionary measures. The chemical plant in Houston that experienced the explosion was able to tell the authorities a day prior to the fire due to taking advantage of the knowledge gleaned from the forecast. The area around the plant was evacuated and kept vacant until the threat was over. The weathermen have to be very accurate with the actual path of the storm following their prediction. An accurate Hurricane forecast is instrumental in saving lives and protecting assets.
  Do Hurricanes use the islands and Continent to guide their track? Hurricanes are among the most powerful storms on the planet, huge circulating high-velocity clouds spinning ever faster toward the center eye. Meteorologists predict where a Hurricane will make landfall by the standard warm and cold fronts of the many-layered latitudes, they are called baroclinic storms or extratropical cyclones. Defined as a storm system that gathers energy from the temperature changes in the horizontal levels of the storm, the contrasts of temperature fuel these types of Hurricanes. Baroclinic storms or extratropical storms are low-pressure systems that are related to cold fronts, warm fronts, and occluded fronts, the strongest winds of these storms are about 8 miles up. Tropical Cyclones highest winds are at or near the surface of the earth. A tropical hurricane would stay where it is if it wasn't for the temperature variations, the difference in temperature drives the storm forward, actually pushing it through the atmosphere and driving worldwide weather. I noticed that effect with Harvey, the winds after the monster made landfall were occurring far to the north, it appeared to be up to southern Iowa and as far east as Indiana, the hurricane driving weather was obvious.
The west coast of the U.S. is to the left, notice the wind directions, the
east coast is on the right, here the wind pushes the hurricane's
towards Florida. 
  The track of a Hurricane also depends upon where it originated, one that formed in the eastern Atlantic (off the coast of Africa) is forced west in the trade winds that travel west in the tropics. Generally, these storms head in a Northwesterly direction headed for the Eastern U.S. after dredging over the top of many islands. There are three bands of wind circulating around our planet, the entire global wind pattern is called "general circulation", each hemisphere has three wind belts of their own.
  Northern Hemisphere wind belts are Polar Easterlies, Prevailing Westerlies, and the Tropical Easterlies.
  Southern Hemisphere wind belts include: The Tropical Easterlies (there are two of them) the Prevailing Westerlies (two here as well) and the Polar Easterlies (go figure, they share the same names whether North or South.)
  The path is determined which wind belt the Hurricane is in, making them more predictable. A Hurricane that developed off the coast of Africa is driven Northeast by the tropical easterly's, then as it travels far north it is caught in the Prevailing westerlies (just south of New Jersey) from there it is pushed to the East and out into the ocean, there are many paths a storm can take on the East Coast. This also explains why Hurricanes never reach the West Coast of the U.S.
  Hurricanes Don't go up the West Coast, what's with that? The same effect that takes place on the East Coast is at work on the West Coast, the exception is the Tropical Easterlies blow from North to Southwest on a bias. The effect of this is the storms are blown West from about 100 miles south of San Diego, as long as that wind belt stays constant, it would be an extremely rare occurrence for a Hurricane to make landfall in California. It does cause some Hurricanes to head towards Hawaii or the open ocean.
Pacific Hurricane tracks 1980-2005, a bit messy but it does
make a point, this is 25 years of storms.
  The wind belts keep the storms in the Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern United States, The Indian Ocean region and the South China Sea Create the other Hurricanes of the world. The storms in the Southwestern Pacific Ocean head towards Australia or Asia, yes depending on what wind belt they are born in. Read everything you ever wanted to read about Hurricanes, link.
  What does steer Hurricanes? Wind and Temperature, the earth's wind currents and the temperature of the levels of the atmosphere. There is a lot to Hurricane forecasting, this is by far not very much of it, I started out wondering if the islands and mainland's steer them. No, they don't, I'm now wondering how much the wind belts had to do with forming the islands. That's just how my mind works.
  There's a whole world out here full of questions and short of answers, I sometimes wonder how much will ever be figured out. There is another series of Hurricanes heading for the Islands and the East Coast, I don't know how many the people will be able to withstand. I also wonder if and when we will start abandoning areas that get pummeled by storms, one a year is probably withstandable, but what about 2-3 or 4? How in the world can these areas prepare for these disasters if they come stacked on top of each other? How many times in one year will people be able to withstand the loss of everything and bounce back?
  Thanks for reading, please share it and comment.
jacquesandkate emergencykitsplus.com
   

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