Saturday, January 27, 2018

Are earthquakes more frequent now on the West Coast in California, Mexico, and Alaska? Are more on the way?

  San Jose, Morongo Valley, Aromas, Los Angelos, Soledad, Geyserville, Willets, and Twenty-nine Palms, all in California have something in common. That something is each one has experienced at least one earthquake in the past 3 days. (today is January 26, 2018). During the past one week period, 138 earthquakes (M1.5 or greater) have been recorded in California, 18 have occurred in the past 24 hours, 583 during the past 30 days and 7,708 in the past year. (follow this Link for a map showing them) Is there something going on? Is it an indicator that more or worse yet more powerful earthquakes are on the launch pad and ready to quake at any time?
  What's happening is something going on? The United States Geographical Society states that a temporary change in the frequency, or strength of the shakers is not a precursor of a bigger one or more in the near future. The increase in frequency during the past recent years is no indication of more earthquakes, however, it does indicate an increase in more seismic instruments recording the incidents.
Seismic monitorng station in Chalome, California

  You know that makes sense to me, communications have become instantaneous worldwide, we are able to experience an event, go on the internet and report it to anyone in the world, instantly. The ability to report immediately worldwide, by anyone is a powerful force that has changed the very fabric of our society. Research has developed much more reliable, and accurate measuring instruments as well, and the more that are made the more cost effective they are.
  Records have been kept since 1900, historically we have found an average of 16 major earthquakes occur each year, 15 of which exceed 7 magnitudes, and usually one in the 8 magnitudes or greater range. From 1973 through 2011 the average number (16) has been bested 8 times, so it's a pretty good predicting tool for frequency. Once again history is able to predict the future, to a certain extent, for emergency response budgets it is critical. 2010 experienced the largest number of earthquakes with 24, 7 magnitudes or greater, in contrast, 1989 had 6, (7 were major) well below the average predicted. During the historical period of 1906 Through 1995 there were recorded 11 earthquakes exceeding 8.0, this number relates the big ones on the West Coast from Mexico to Alaska. If you are old enough (like me) you may remember the largest of these that shook Southern Alaska on March 3, 1964. I remember on the nightly news (with Walter Cronkite) showing large slabs of concrete upturned and open fissures crossing roadways.
I remember this damage from the 1964 Alaska earthquake.

During this historic period six occurred in Alaska, one in Canada, and four in Mexico, none of the "big ones" were in California. The Great San Francisco earthquake did not make the list, surprisingly it was a 7.9, just below the 8 required to make this list. That quake destroyed most of the City, 3,000 people lost their lives, 28,000 buildings were destroyed. It was felt as far north as southern Oregon, south to Los Angelos, and east into central Nevada. Surprisingly earthquake activity in California has remained low, even that is not an indication that all is well, the 10,000 miles long San Andreas fault is the sleeping giant. it has the probability of a 75% chance of causing a 7 magnitude or greater within the next 30 years.
  That's the West Coast, (Link to a map showing the number of quakes that occurred during the past week, in North America). Earthquakes can and do happen on every continent in the World. Some states appear to be immune, North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and the northern half of Michigan. These states are situated on granite bedrock, some of the oldest in the world. The New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812 were some of the largest in the U.S. since European records have been kept. Occurring in the most populated city at that time in the country, 600,000 acres were affected, 5,000,000 square miles, in Missouri. No area is immune entirely, we should not rest on an assumption that it won't happen here. The New Madrid quakes were 10 times larger than the San Francisco earthquake of 1906, three times as large as the Alaska earthquake of 1964. (Wow.) One amazing side note is the great Native American Shawnee leader Tecumseh predicted the New Madrid earthquakes two years before they occurred, stating "when the big river flows backward and the earth shakes we will meet." The Mississippi did indeed flow northward, then resumed its natural flow.
The New Madrid Fault is active and extremely large. 

  With all of the information, we now have we are still not able to predict earthquakes occurring in a timely manner to save lives with an early evacuation. The best things we can do is prepare and remain ready.
  1)  Use a FEMA template to make an emergency response plan. (Link to FEMA's family make a plan template)
  2)  Have some emergency supplies on hand, either commercially prepared or put together individually. (Link to a typical commercially available earthquake kit)
  3)  Expect, blackouts, fires, and communication failures.
  If we each practice these three suggestions, we will be a step ahead of the crowd, and we will be able to sleep better at night. My kits are sitting next to the door, on the upper level, ready to go.
  Thank you for reading and sharing my blog, we experience a lot of minor earthquakes where my wife and I live, most are ho-hum, some cause extensive damage, I'm lucky, I've only experienced small shakers, otherwise referred to in my world as a "what was that? An earthquake?"

jacquesandkate  emergencykitsplus.com

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